Membership Declines While Ratios Remain Steady

The BSA's annual report for 2008 shows that membership numbers are continuing to decline as the ratios of Scouts to leaders remain steady. The table below reports membership changes from the past four years and analyzes the sizes of units and leadership ratios.

I am counting on more mathematically talented folks to check my work and the assumptions I draw from the numbers.

	2005	2006	2007	2008	Change	%
YOUTH
Tiger Cubs	243,609	247,017	241,851	231,471	-12,138	-5%
Cub Scouts	834,562	819,882	800,729	798,060	-36,502	-4%
Webelos Scouts	667,153	634,962	645,406	636,104	-31,049	-5%
Total Cub Scouts	1,745,324	1,701,861	1,687,986	1,665,635	-79,689	-5%
Boy Scouts	879,789	860,675	851,572	844,939	-34,850	-4%
Varsity Scouts	63,637	62,161	62,016	60,940	-2,697	-4%
Total Scout/Varsity	943,426	922,836	913,588	905,879	-37,547	-4%
Venturers	249,948	244,266	254,259	261,122	11,174	4%
Total Scouts	2,938,698	2,868,963	2,855,833	2,832,636	-106,062	-4%
UNITS
Cub Scout Packs	51,469	51,077	50,780	50,213	-1,256	-2%
Venturing	20,117	19,920	19,920	19,998	-119	-1%
Boy Scout Troops	42,811	42,269	41,947	41,628	-1,183	-3%
Total Traditional Units	122,582	121,530	121,034	120,262	-2,320	-2%
ADULT LEADERSHIP
Cub Scout Leaders	493,165	480,457	480,316	470,400	-22,765	-5%
Boy Scout Leaders	520,591	519,557	524,962	528,534	7,943	2%
Varsity  Leaders	23,380	22,799	23,356	23,392	12	0%
Venturing Leaders	63,821	63,500	65,645	65,621	1,800	3%
Council Leaders	45,269	43,638	43,829	44,406	-863	-2%
Total Leaders	1,146,226	1,129,951	1,138,108	1,132,353	-13,873	-1%
Unit Ratios
Scouts per Troop	20.6	20.4	20.3	20.3
Leaders per Troop	12.2	12.3	12.5	12.7
Scouts per Leader	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.6
Cub Scouts per Pack	33.9	33.3	33.2	33.2
Leader per Pack	9.6	9.4	9.5	9.4
Cubs per Leader	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5
Venturers per Crew	12.4	12.3	12.8	13.1
Leaders per Crew	3.2	3.2	3.3	3.3
Venturers Per Leader	3.9	3.8	3.9	4.0

Leadership ratios and unit sizes have remained steady as membership has declined.

I am curious that the ratio of Scouts to leaders is basically half of that as Cubs per leader. Although the decrease in Cubs and Scouts from 2005-2008 is about the same the ten year trend (below) represents that we have lost twice as many Cubs as Scouts. I wonder if the leadership ratios are a factor?

There also seems to be a retention problem in Cub Scouts as they approach Webelos. From what I have seen there is a fair amount of attrition from Tiger to Wolf and from Bear to Webelos. I can't find any numbers for the Webelos to Scout transition. I can extrapolate that since there are  twice as many Cub Scouts as Boy Scouts we are only transitioning half of the boys who join Cubs into Scout Troops.

Here is a look at the ten year trend showing a net loss of 16% but a more shocking loss of nearly a quarter of Cub Scouts while Boy Scouts shows the lowest losses.

	1998	2008	Change	%
Tiger Cubs	304,346	231,471	-72,875	-24%
Cub Scouts	1,006,497	798,060	-208,437	-21%
Webelos Scouts	861,144	636,104	-225,040	-26%
Total Cub Scouts	2,171,987	1,665,635	-506,352	-23%
Boy Scouts	945,583	844,939	-100,644	-11%
Varsity Scouts	77,859	60,940	-16,919	-22%
Total Boy Scouts	1,023,442	905,879	-117,563	-11%
Venturers	188,010	261,122	73,112	39%
Total Scouts	3,383,439	2,832,636	-550,803	-16%

I know that our Troop has had to extend a great deal of effort to recruit Webelos and other boys to become members. The 'good old days' where we could expect eight or ten new members from local Packs are over.

The ratios of leadership indicate that Troops are top-heavy with adult leadership. Cub and Venture leaders have about twice the number of youth members to care for. It would seem to me that Troops should detail a number of their leaders to work directly with Packs to support their program and help to increase retention and transition.

Comments

[Michael Hartford]

Having adult leader contact between pack and troop would be helpful, but not as important as having more Scout contact.

I'm a leader in a successful Cub Scout pack, where our retention from rank to rank has been very good but our retention after Scouts move on to a troop has been disappointing. Having Boy Scout involvement in a Cub Scout program is the key factor in my experience: an enthusiastic Den Chief who leads activities not only makes my job easier, it also encourages the Cub Scouts to set their sights on a troop. A great Den Chief could bring a whole lot of Webelos up to his troop; my den (new Bears) has a lot of interest in Boy Scouts because our Den Chief made a real effort to engage them.